| Event | MarCon* | IIR Comment | Outlet | IIR News |
| With his promises of peace unmet in Gaza and Ukraine, Trump may find Iran just as tough |  |
With his campaign promises unfulfilled to quickly bring peace to Gaza and Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump has turned to another high-profile challenge that could be just as elusive: curbing Iran's escalating nuclear program. Adding to regional tensions surrounding the diplomatic effort is Trump's repeated threat to bomb Iran's nuclear sites if a deal cannot be reached. |
Reuters | U.S. Orders Halt to Empire Wind Construction |
| Russian drone attacks reported by Ukraine after 'Easter truce' ends | |
To expect the so-called Easter truce to have much of an impact would have meant ignoring what has happened in the 11 years of this war. Putin is keen to send a message to Donald Trump that it is Russia, and not Ukraine, that is genuinely interested in peace. Whether Donald Trump believes that message is crucial ahead of some key talks expected this week. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will be travelling to the US, where he may sign the minerals deal long demanded by Washington. And London is expected to host another round of negotiations involving Ukrainian, US and European officials. |
BBC | Will Second Nuclear Renaissance in the U.S. End Like the First? |
| Crude Drops 2% on Iran Talks Progress and Economic Worries |  |
Crude drops over 2% as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks signal a potential return of sanctioned Iranian oil supply. Beyond supply concerns, traders are contending with macroeconomic stress. A combination of tariff-driven growth concerns and political pressure on the Federal Reserve added to market anxiety, lifting gold and dragging crude lower. Failure to break $64.18 resistance triggers bearish pressure; support eyed near $59.33 on fading momentum. Oil remains trapped below $66.85 and $68.68 moving averages, reinforcing downside in long-term price trends. |
FX Empire | Canada Readies for More Oil Drilling as U.S. Tariffs Paused |
| Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as China keeps benchmark lending rates steady |  |
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday as China's central bank held rates at a time when the yuan has come under pressure due to Beijing-Washington trade tensions. Investors are focused on U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, as they continue to roil global markets. Last week, Trump called for the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates while adding that the termination of Fed Chair Jerome Powell "cannot come fast enough." Trump's comments came after Powell cautioned that ongoing trade tensions could challenge the central bank's goals of controlling inflation and spurring growth. |
CNBC | Trump Trade Policies Impact Supply Chains, U.S. Cargo Port Activity |
| Natural Gas News: Bearish Forecast Builds as Sellers Eye 200-Day Average at $2.899 | |
EIA reports a smaller-than-expected 16 Bcf injection last week, but sentiment remains bearish despite the bullish surprise. Production stays elevated above 105 Bcf/day, while LNG exports slip to 15.5 Bcf/day, widening the imbalance. U.S. natural gas futures continued their downward drift Monday, extending a five-day slide driven by persistent selling pressure and weak demand signals. Prices are now pressing into key technical territory, with traders eyeing the 61.8% retracement level at $2.995 and the 200-day moving average near $2.899 as the next critical zone. |
FX Empire | U.S. LNG Subdued by Maintenance |
| Beijing warns countries against colluding with US to restrict trade with China | |
Beijing has warned its trading partners against succumbing to US pressure to isolate China in President Donald Trump's tariff war, as part of its carrot-and-stick approach to win over countries caught between the world's two largest economies. In his first foreign trip this year, Xi visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia last week, signing a barrage of bilateral cooperation agreements and pledging to uphold free and open trade. Chinese officials have also held calls and talks with counterparts in Japan, South Korea and the European Union to push for closer economic cooperation. But while countries appear receptive to Beijing's outreach, they are also wary of being flooded with cheap Chinese goods that are now shut out of the US markets due to the sky-high tariffs - and the risk of provoking Trump for siding with China. |
CNN | Get Ready: China's Rare Earth Restrictions and Trump's Critical Minerals Order |
| Australia's Race to Develop a Critical Minerals Sector | |
Australia has been developing its critical mineral sector in recent years, aiming to become a major producer and processor of the high-demand minerals and metals needed to support a global green transition. In addition to launching a national strategy and providing billions in funding for the sector, the government recently established a tax incentives law for critical minerals that is expected to attract greater investment in the sector. Australia's Labour government has supported the development of the country's critical minerals industry, with significant sectoral growth expected over the coming decades. However, this expansion could depend heavily on whether Albanese wins the May election or if the Liberal-National Coalition takes power, putting more of an emphasis on natural gas development. |
OilPrice | Join IIR for a Podcast on the Outlook for the Metals & Minerals Industry |
| Week 04/14/25 - 04/21/25 | |
Truces are fleeting as there seemingly was an Easter Truce in the Russia-Ukraine war, although more "talks" will be held in London among Ukraine, the U.S. and European allies. Talks also have been ongoing between the U.S. and Iran to curb Iran's nuclear oil program. Mr. Oil Market is nervous with all this geopolitical and geoeconomic tension throughout the world as fundamentals shift the crude markets back into bearish territories. For nobody knows what is truly going to unfold this week - will there be agreements reached in Eastern Europe, with Iran, and between China and the U.S.; and if so, what will they portend from a commodities market perspective? | ||
| *MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR. | ||||
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