Released October 19, 2022 | CORDOBA, ARGENTINA
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Researched by Amir Richani for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Brazil is preparing for a presidential election on October 30, in what could represent a total shift in the nation's energy policy.
After winning the first round of the elections on October 4 with 48.4% of the votes, former president and leftist leader Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva remains the favourite candidate for the second round of the elections with 49% of the support, according to Brazilian polling firm Datafolha.
Lula, as the former president is locally known, throughout the years has pledged to strengthen state companies such as Petrobras. The former president has increasingly criticized the incumbent government's privatization policies that have led to the sale of Petrobras' refineries and midstream assets.
The leftist candidate said last week that he will promote the self-sustainability of Brazil's refining industry, objecting to the privatization of the national oil company. Under his tenure between 2003-2010, Petrobras saw its output increase considerably between 1.26 million barrels per day (BBL/d) of oil in January 2003 to 1.83 million BBL/d in December 2010.
Trailing narrowly behind Lula is incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, who has 44% popularity for the October 30 election, according to Datafolha. Bolsonaro has been a steadfast advocate of the divestment of energy companies in Brazil, leading to the sale of Petrobras' downstream and midstream units.
Under his tenure, Petrobras has divested assets such as the Landulpho Alves Refinery (RLAM), which has a capacity of 333,000 BBL/d. If victorious on October 30, Bolsonaro is expected to maintain his support for the privatization of Petrobras.
The Brazilian energy company remains a crucial asset for the South American country, which averaged an oil production of just more than 3.08 million (BBL/d) in August, setting the strongest pace so far this year. Of those, Petrobras contributed about 2.81 million BBL/d of the total output.
The reality is that Brazil could be looking at a shift in its energy policy. Lula would propose a more nationalistic approach, focused on state companies and the control of fuel prices. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro likely would continue with his divestment efforts while keeping fuel prices under check.
Regarding the mining industry, Reuters reported last month that the Lula campaign was studying the possibility of increasing royalties on mining projects if elected. This could hamper new investments in the mining industry over the mid to long term.
Despite Lula's high popularity, Datafolha also highlighted that 5% of the people surveyed will vote blank, while 1% are undecided.
Following the first round of the elections, it was expected that Lula would move his political position toward the center in order to attract the supporters of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, who collectively gathered 7.2% of the total votes in the first round of the elections. Nevertheless, Tebet and Gomes have supported Lula for the second round.
Tensions have been increasing ahead of the October 30 contest as Lula has called Bolsonaro a dictator in the latest government debate, following fears of power handout. The incumbent, for his part, has attacked the leftist leader for corruption.
What is clear is that despite Lula's advantage in the polls, Bolsonaro has proved in several occasions to overcome expectations, maintaining uncertainty high ahead of the second round of the elections.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
After winning the first round of the elections on October 4 with 48.4% of the votes, former president and leftist leader Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva remains the favourite candidate for the second round of the elections with 49% of the support, according to Brazilian polling firm Datafolha.
Lula, as the former president is locally known, throughout the years has pledged to strengthen state companies such as Petrobras. The former president has increasingly criticized the incumbent government's privatization policies that have led to the sale of Petrobras' refineries and midstream assets.
The leftist candidate said last week that he will promote the self-sustainability of Brazil's refining industry, objecting to the privatization of the national oil company. Under his tenure between 2003-2010, Petrobras saw its output increase considerably between 1.26 million barrels per day (BBL/d) of oil in January 2003 to 1.83 million BBL/d in December 2010.
Trailing narrowly behind Lula is incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, who has 44% popularity for the October 30 election, according to Datafolha. Bolsonaro has been a steadfast advocate of the divestment of energy companies in Brazil, leading to the sale of Petrobras' downstream and midstream units.
Under his tenure, Petrobras has divested assets such as the Landulpho Alves Refinery (RLAM), which has a capacity of 333,000 BBL/d. If victorious on October 30, Bolsonaro is expected to maintain his support for the privatization of Petrobras.
The Brazilian energy company remains a crucial asset for the South American country, which averaged an oil production of just more than 3.08 million (BBL/d) in August, setting the strongest pace so far this year. Of those, Petrobras contributed about 2.81 million BBL/d of the total output.
The reality is that Brazil could be looking at a shift in its energy policy. Lula would propose a more nationalistic approach, focused on state companies and the control of fuel prices. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro likely would continue with his divestment efforts while keeping fuel prices under check.
Regarding the mining industry, Reuters reported last month that the Lula campaign was studying the possibility of increasing royalties on mining projects if elected. This could hamper new investments in the mining industry over the mid to long term.
Despite Lula's high popularity, Datafolha also highlighted that 5% of the people surveyed will vote blank, while 1% are undecided.
Following the first round of the elections, it was expected that Lula would move his political position toward the center in order to attract the supporters of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, who collectively gathered 7.2% of the total votes in the first round of the elections. Nevertheless, Tebet and Gomes have supported Lula for the second round.
Tensions have been increasing ahead of the October 30 contest as Lula has called Bolsonaro a dictator in the latest government debate, following fears of power handout. The incumbent, for his part, has attacked the leftist leader for corruption.
What is clear is that despite Lula's advantage in the polls, Bolsonaro has proved in several occasions to overcome expectations, maintaining uncertainty high ahead of the second round of the elections.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
