Released January 10, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--New year, same political refrain--a nation's longtime leader is blown out of office by shifting winds from voters. Justin Trudeau's Monday resignation followed prime minister changes in South Korea, the United Kingdom, France and other countries in 2024, while other leaders, in India, South Africa and elsewhere, managed to stay in power while seeing their mandates reduced. And in Germany, after a no-confidence vote for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, that nation faces elections in February.
But all those others were overseas, a long way from Washington, D.C. Trudeau's resignation due to inner party turmoil and loss of polling support is right across the border, with the U.S.' number two trading partner. Southern neighbor Mexico is number one, while China is actually a distant third, according to Department of Commerce numbers.
In his action, Trudeau asked the governor general to prorogue Parliament, an action that in effect pauses all Parliamentary activity until March 24, just before a key budget vote will be necessary to keep the government funded. That will give Trudeau's liberal party time to decide on a new leader/prime minister (PM) to serve at least until the next elections, which will be required by October 20, although some have called for any new PM to schedule them sooner in order to restore order to the government. National sentiment seems to be favoring the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, which would end the liberals' nine-year reign (taking control of Parliament after the 2015 elections).
Energy Ripples
Trudeau's green agenda has been seen as an enemy of the nation's oil and gas industry, which is mainly located in Alberta. BNN Bloomberg reported that energy stocks rose as much as 2% Monday before closing higher by .79% upon the news of Trudeau's resignation. But until new elections are held, there is not likely to be any significant change in energy policy.
The Trudeau government did invest $4.5 billion in purchasing the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2018, enabling its completion, and allowing Canadian oil production and exports to set new records. But most policies were seen as favoring renewable energy at the expense of oil and gas.
In that sector, the U.S. and its northern neighbor have a complex relationship. Oil is the U.S.'s top import from Canada, the latter of which produces much more than it can use. Some of that oil is then returned north in the form of refined products. Should a second Trump administration impose the threatened 25% tariffs, it could create issues in that trade, especially as Canada would be likely to retaliate with tariffs of its own.
Although Trump himself has denied it, rumors are circulating that he might actually be considering more targeted tariffs that might generate less backlash from affected countries. Indeed, in his previous administration his actual tariffs were less stringent than originally proposed.
Hosting G7 in June
Amid this turmoil, Canada is set to host the 51st G7 summit in June. G7, an informal meeting among the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Great Britain and Italy, with the European Union along as a "non-enumerated" member. While it has no formal authority, its custom is for the nations to agree to a communiqué agreeing on some major points. This will be Canada's seventh time to host the meetings.
With new leaders in the U.S., Canada, Great Britain, Germany and Japan, and political upheaval in France--where President Emmanuel Macron is still in office but has a new prime minister--the G7 will look very different from its last meeting in Italy in June of 2024.
But Canada's previous occasion to host the G7 saw then-President Trump create waves by refusing to sign the group's communiqué, primarily over his disagreement with climate goals. This time, President-elect Trump is threatening to impose broad 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, along with Mexico, China and others whose imports he deems a threat to U.S. manufacturing jobs.
Should new Canadian elections be held before June, as some have called for, it would likely mean a more conservative government would be in place when the meeting starts. Whether that would be more friendly to Trump policies remains to be seen.
Down the Road
Trudeau came into office in 2015 as a breath of fresh air, with promises of a greater future for the nation. Over the years, the realities of inflation, immigration and the normal political process of over-promising finally caught up with him. Combined with open internal disagreements--the recent resignation of Chrystia Feeland, the deputy prime minister and minister of finance, over several issues including spending policies--furthered Trudeau's downfall by affecting his ability to rule his own party.
Financial and energy markets, among others, await the future of Canada's government.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
But all those others were overseas, a long way from Washington, D.C. Trudeau's resignation due to inner party turmoil and loss of polling support is right across the border, with the U.S.' number two trading partner. Southern neighbor Mexico is number one, while China is actually a distant third, according to Department of Commerce numbers.
In his action, Trudeau asked the governor general to prorogue Parliament, an action that in effect pauses all Parliamentary activity until March 24, just before a key budget vote will be necessary to keep the government funded. That will give Trudeau's liberal party time to decide on a new leader/prime minister (PM) to serve at least until the next elections, which will be required by October 20, although some have called for any new PM to schedule them sooner in order to restore order to the government. National sentiment seems to be favoring the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, which would end the liberals' nine-year reign (taking control of Parliament after the 2015 elections).
Energy Ripples
Trudeau's green agenda has been seen as an enemy of the nation's oil and gas industry, which is mainly located in Alberta. BNN Bloomberg reported that energy stocks rose as much as 2% Monday before closing higher by .79% upon the news of Trudeau's resignation. But until new elections are held, there is not likely to be any significant change in energy policy.
The Trudeau government did invest $4.5 billion in purchasing the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2018, enabling its completion, and allowing Canadian oil production and exports to set new records. But most policies were seen as favoring renewable energy at the expense of oil and gas.
In that sector, the U.S. and its northern neighbor have a complex relationship. Oil is the U.S.'s top import from Canada, the latter of which produces much more than it can use. Some of that oil is then returned north in the form of refined products. Should a second Trump administration impose the threatened 25% tariffs, it could create issues in that trade, especially as Canada would be likely to retaliate with tariffs of its own.
Although Trump himself has denied it, rumors are circulating that he might actually be considering more targeted tariffs that might generate less backlash from affected countries. Indeed, in his previous administration his actual tariffs were less stringent than originally proposed.
Hosting G7 in June
Amid this turmoil, Canada is set to host the 51st G7 summit in June. G7, an informal meeting among the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Great Britain and Italy, with the European Union along as a "non-enumerated" member. While it has no formal authority, its custom is for the nations to agree to a communiqué agreeing on some major points. This will be Canada's seventh time to host the meetings.
With new leaders in the U.S., Canada, Great Britain, Germany and Japan, and political upheaval in France--where President Emmanuel Macron is still in office but has a new prime minister--the G7 will look very different from its last meeting in Italy in June of 2024.
But Canada's previous occasion to host the G7 saw then-President Trump create waves by refusing to sign the group's communiqué, primarily over his disagreement with climate goals. This time, President-elect Trump is threatening to impose broad 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, along with Mexico, China and others whose imports he deems a threat to U.S. manufacturing jobs.
Should new Canadian elections be held before June, as some have called for, it would likely mean a more conservative government would be in place when the meeting starts. Whether that would be more friendly to Trump policies remains to be seen.
Down the Road
Trudeau came into office in 2015 as a breath of fresh air, with promises of a greater future for the nation. Over the years, the realities of inflation, immigration and the normal political process of over-promising finally caught up with him. Combined with open internal disagreements--the recent resignation of Chrystia Feeland, the deputy prime minister and minister of finance, over several issues including spending policies--furthered Trudeau's downfall by affecting his ability to rule his own party.
Financial and energy markets, among others, await the future of Canada's government.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
